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NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND POPULATION

Im Dokument Bank of Greece (Seite 34-37)

This group contains data on Gross Domestic Product at current and constant prices, GDP defla-tor, real GDP per capita, imports and exports, and population.

Gross domestic product

Table GR6_A reports the data series on the aggregate level of the value of Gross Domestic Prod-uct (GDP) both at current prices and at constant 1914 prices (series GR6A_A and series GR6B_A).

96 The GSSGStatistical Yearbookfor 1937 reference year mistakenly reported the data figures on the index of the production of electricity as the data figures on the general index of industrial production. Here, we reported the true 1937 data entry on the general index of industrial production, which has been taken from the AOS publications.

97 Exports of agricultural products, industrial production, imports of iron and machinery, freight moved (railway and water), bank clearings.

The sample period is 1833–1939 and the data are shown at annual frequency only. The time series on GDP was constructed and reported by Kostelenos et al. (2007, Table 6–III, columns 8 and 9, pp. 137–141). To quote the authors, GDP was computed ‘based on estimates made directly using the production (value added) method, the most notable exception being the analysis of the terti-ary sector, where a combination of the income method and of an indirect approach has been used’

(p. 251). GDP at constant 1914 prices was assessed using the GDP deflator (1914=100) (GR6C_A).

The latter is a Paasche type index of the prices of 10 products from the primary and the second-ary sector and covers over 23% of the total value of the GDP. The data on the GDP deflator are also taken from Kostelenos et al. (2007, Diagram 7A1, p. 167). GR6D_A depicts the real GDP per capita entries, which are also retrieved by Kostelenos et al. (2007, Table 9–I, pp. 217–219).

Figures 10a and 10b show the evolution of the real per capita output over time and its main com-ponents. Despite the significant increase in the population owning to the gradual territorial enlarge-ment of the country, real per capita output exhibits a strong upward long-run trend, mainly as the result of the output increase.98

During the gold standard period 1870–1913, Greece enjoyed an annual average per capita GDP growth rate of 0.66% based on a 5-year rolling time span, which was 0.85 percentage points less the combined average (1.5%) of the most advanced countries (namely, the US, the UK, France and Germany).99In the interwar years (1918–1938) the difference was reversed; 2.6% for Greece compared with 1.2% for the advanced countries (see Morys 2006).100However, throughout the sample period, Greek real per capita output levels were less than half the combined average of the most advanced economies.

Imports and exports

Table GR6_A (GR6E_A, GR6F_A) depicts the data series on the value of the imported (c.i.f) and the exported (f.o.b) commodities (services are not included).101The sample period is from 1851 to 1944 for the annual data entries and from January 1928 to December 1944 for the monthly (not seasonally adjusted) figures (see the volume’s CD Table GR6_M; GR6E_M, GR6F_M).102The data entries are at current 1929 paper drachmas. Explicitly, until 1919 when the country reverted to a free float, trade was denominated in gold drachmas.103Even though gold convertibility was in effect only for a very short-time period, the conversion rate of a gold drachma to a paper drachma was roughly 1:1. From 1920 onwards, the officially reported fig-ures on trade were reported in 1929 paper drachmas. After the 1928 drachma devaluation and

98 See Lazaretou (2004, 2006).

99 This positive performance of the country is easily explained by the ‘convergence hypothesis’: a poor country,ceteris paribus, tends to grow faster than a rich country, and hence the per capita income level of the former will catch up with the latter (see Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1992, 2003).

100Morys (2006, Table 2) based on Maddison’s (2004) estimates calculated the interwar years by taking the 1913 value for 1918

‘…to avoid artificially high growth rates for the interwar period’ (p. 34). Based on Kostelenos et al. (2007) estimates and taking the 1910 value for 1918, we found that the difference for Greece was much lower, 0.35 of a percentage point (1.55%

versus 1.2%). Taking the 1910 value seems more reasonable for the Greek case since in 1912–13 the country was in war (i.e., the First and the Second Balkan War) and the 1911 value was excessively high.

101Trade included all imported commodities on which a tariff was imposed and paid, and all exported products that were either domestically produced or were first imported as intermediate products and then exported as final products. Until 1920, the value, i.e. the product of the quantitytimesthe price, was mandated by a government special committee. From 1921 onwards, exports were defined in f.o.b and imports in c.i.f prices.

102For the period 1928 onwards for which a complete monthly data series is available, the annual figures are the unweighted sum of monthly figures. In the annual series reported by the GSSG, several mistakes were made in the summation of the monthly figures which we corrected here. The post-war data start in 1951.

103The data in gold drachmas are available upon request.

stabilisation, one gold drachma was equal to 14.87 paper drachmas. Using this rate, we expressed the data entries for the years prior to 1920, which were denominated in gold drachmas, in 1929 paper drachmas.

FIGURE I0a Real Per Capita GDP, 1833–1938 (in LMU drachmas at 1914 constant prices)

Source: Kostelenos et al. (2007).

FIGURE I0b GDP and Population, 1833–1938

Sources: Kostelenos et al. (2007) and ELSTAT.

We should mention that interested researchers should use these data series with caution. First, the only available data series refer to trade values and not to trade volumes;104thus price fluctuations strongly affect the time series properties of the variables. Second, the official data on imports under-estimate the country’s foreign trade, given the high rates of smuggling (almost 30% of total imports105) associated with the high tariffs applying at the time. Third, since exports chiefly included agricultural products (around 70% of total exports), strong seasonal factors played a role in deter-mining not only trade flows but also the drachma’s exchange rate. Consequently, the BoG in order to keep the rate of the drachma fixed, had to intervene very frequently in the open market off-setting the seasonal factor. Fourth, imports did not include public sector procurement and defence equipment, which accounted for a large proportion of the country’s total imports.106

Population

Population shown at annual intervals (1833–1939) is measured in million of inhabitants (Table GR6_A; GR6G_A). The yearly entries (mid-year estimates,de factopopulation) were based upon the census of the years 1821, 1828, 1839, 1840, 1841, 1842, 1843, 1844, 1845, 1848, 1853, 1856, 1861, 1870, 1879, 1881, 1889, 1896, 1907, 1913, 1920, 1923 and 1928. 1928 was the last cen-sus year during the pre-WWII period.

Im Dokument Bank of Greece (Seite 34-37)